C Population Projections and Procedures

The following projection equation and assumptions were used to calculate Westborough's population over a six year time period (2002-2007).

P1 = P + births - deaths + net migration

P1 The projected population at the end of the forecast time frame. The births, deaths, and net migration refer to events occurring during this time frame. For this projection, P1 will start at the end of 2002.

P The population at the beginning of the time frame. For this projection, P will start at the known population of 18,000 (population as of 11/1/02 – source Town Clerk).

Birth-deaths This is referred to as the natural increase of a given population. As shown in Table 1, the median natural increase for Westborough over the past six years is 23 persons per year. The data was tabulated by using the Town Clerk’s data originating from the Annual Town Reports from 1996-2001. Although there are other sources of data available to determine the natural increase in population, such as the Vital Statistics of Massachusetts Annual Report, or the EOCD Buildout, it has been determined during the previous open space and recreation plan update that Westborough’s data is more reliable then the above sources.

Table 1 Resident Births and Deaths

YEAR	BIRTHS	DEATHS	NATURAL INCREASE
1996	185	149	36
1997	204	196	8
1998	233	183	50
1999	191	211	-20
2000	188	191	-3
2001	233	215	18

Source: Westborough Town Clerk Annual Reports 1996-2001

Medium natural increase = 23

Net Migration Net migration is the major contributor to Westborough's increase in population. The assumptions associated with migration are as follows:

• Assumes the renter's market in terms of population numbers remains relatively constant, thereby contributing 0 to the overall population growth absent the approval of a new comprehensive permit. Note: The comprehensive permit development “Avalon at Flanders Hill” has been calculated within the buildout and population projections. The project has a potential of contributing an additional 742 residents (280 units x 2.65 = 742).
• Assumes older homes on the market are sold and maintain a constant household number, thereby contributing 0 to the overall population.
• Assumes families will steadily continue to move into Westborough because of the new housing stock, accessibility to I-495 and I-90, and the school system. Note: The addition of the new MBTA Station in 2002 located on the west side of Town will also add to the attractiveness of moving to Westborough.
• Assumes the majority of future housing will be 3-4 bedroom homes, based on present housing stock.
• Assumes the present single family market will increase steadily in Westborough.
• Assumes newly constructed single family housing increases at twice the rate of occupancy due to the lag time in housing purchases.
• Assumes that new families moving into the new homes will average 2.65 persons per household. This is the suggested multiplier the Central Massachusetts Regional Planning Commission recommended for Westborough's family characteristics.

The result of the above projection equation and assumptions is shown in Table 2. It lists the calculations from 2002-2007 on the left half of the table, and the projected populations to the right. The net migration numbers are followed with letters in parentheses. These letters correspond to the notes, explaining how each net migration figure was derived.

Table 2 Calculations and Projected Population

CALCULATIONS P1 = P + natural increase + net migration (Notes)	PROJECTED POPULATION
18,048 P(2002) = 18,048 + 23 + 25 (A) 19,140 P(2003) = 18,048 + 23 + 1069 (B) 19,231 P(2004) = 19,140 + 23 + 68 (C) 19,322 P(2005) = 19,231 + 23 + 68 (D) 19,413 P(2006) = 19,322 + 23 + 68 (E) 19,504 P(2007) = 19,413 + 23 + 68 (F)	2002 - 18,048 2003 - 19,140 2004 - 19,231 2005 - 19,322 2006 - 19,413 2007 - 19,504

NOTES:

A. The net migration of 25 was calculated using the 19 lots released in 2002. Based on the assumption that new housing increases at twice the rate that families occupy them, assumes that 9.5 new families will move into the new homes (19 / 2 = 9.5). The 9.5 new households were then multiplied by 2.65 to obtain the 25 new resident figure.

B. Assumes half of the lots from 2002 (9.5 lots) were carried over to 2003, and were built and occupied (9.5 x 2.65 = 25). It also assumes that the Avalon at Flanders Hill located off Flanders Road which is an approved Comprehensive Permit under Chapter 40B will have been completed and fully occupied with 742 additional residents (280 units x 2.65 = 742 residents). It also assumes the remaining 101 approved lots (Table 3.2 in Section 3) will be built and occupied, contributing 268 new residents. It also assumes that the 126 lots from (Table 3.3 in Section 3), will be divided and released equally from 2003-2007, contributing 25.2 lots to each year (126lots / 5years = 25.2). Using the assumption that new housing increases at twice the rate that families move into them, assumes that 12.6 new families will move into the new homes (25.2 / 2 = 12.6). The 12.6 new households were then multiplied by 2.65 to obtain 34 new residents to be added to the population. Hence, 25 + 742 + 268 +34 = 1069 new residents to be added to P (2002).

C. Assumes half the lots from 2003 were carried over to 2004 and were built and occupied, adding 34 new residents (12.6 x 2.65). It also assumes half of the projected 25.2 released lots will be built and occupied equaling 34 new residents (12.6 x 2.65). Hence, 34 + 34 equals 68 new residents to be added to the P (2003) population.

D. Assumes half the lots from 2004 were carried over to 2005 and were built and occupied, adding 34 new residents (12.6 x 2.65). It also assumes half of the projected 25.2 released lots will be built and occupied equaling 34 new residents (12.6 x 2.65). Hence, 34 + 34 = 68 new residents added to the P (2004) population.

E. Assumes half the lots from 2005 were carried over to 2006 and were built and occupied, adding 34 new residents (12.6 x 2.65). It also assumes half of the projected 25.2 released lots will be built and occupied equaling 34 new residents (12.6 x 2.65). Hence, 34 + 34 = 68 new residents added to the P (2005) population.

F. Assumes half the lots from 2006 were carried over to 2007 and were built and occupied, adding 34 new residents (12.6 x 2.65). It also assumes half of the projected 25.2 released lots will be built and occupied equaling 34 new residents (12.6 x 2.65). Hence, 34 + 34 = 68 new residents added to the P (2006) population. The remaining 12.6 lots would be carried over to the year 2008.